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This research paper intended to find a better way to help the strategist account for the acknowledged unknowns in the operational plan--its assumptions. It outlines the current joint doctrine explanation of operational art and design and examines the criticality of assumptions in operational planning. It utilizes four historical examples to illustrate the impact of assumptions in war planning, and finally it provides conclusions and recommendations to construct a viable plan that can survive 'first contact.' Serving as the commander's keys to assessing risk, assumptions can identify decision points and act as catalysts for flexibility to 'survive the first contact' with an unpredictable enemy. The enabling element, however, for a plan to remain viable is not the assumption alone, but its marriage to the commander's critical information requirements (CCIRs) and ultimately an actionable branch plan. The criticality of that linkage, the importance of executable branch plans and the mitigating tools available to the commander and his planners are misunderstood and consequently underutilized.
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