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Non-linear Time Series Analysis and the Business Cycle
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The business cycle is a complex phenomenon which attractsboth scientific and public interest. But what are the definingcharacteristics of the business cycle? Is the business cycleasymmetric or non-linear? What can be said about the occurrence ofturning points over time? This book gives an overview over the mostpopular non-linear time series models and their maincharacteristics and possible application to business cycle timeseries. The basic ideas of testing, estimation and forecasting withmany references for further reading will be presented. Furthermorethe book outlines concepts for detecting non-linearity in a timeseries. By fitting and accepting a special model, new insights inunderstanding the structure of a time series can be gained. As anempirical application and illustration we apply the presentedmodels to the three famous Ifo indicators: the Business Assessment,the Business Expectations and the Business Climate. The book can beunderstood as a starting point for own applications to empiricalbusiness cycle analysis. It addresses financial analysts,researchers, and anyone else who is interested in business cycleanalysis and non-linear time series concepts.
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